A delicate US-China relationship

Managing the US-China-Russia triangle

Three powers stand out as the leading political and military players in the international system during the initial decades of the 21st century: ■the United States, Russia, and China. A revitalized Japan, a rising India and the European Union might also join those ranks, but that result is far from certain. For the moment, relations between Washington, Moscow and Beijing are of critical importance. How that "strategic triangle" is managed will determine whether the world avoids major war. At the present time, there is reason for cautious optimism, but there are also a few warning signals of potential trouble.

The relationship between the United States and China has been turbulent in recent years. The US bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo war in May 1999 brought relations to a crisis point, as did the collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese fighter plane in April 2001. The increasingly important trade and investment relationship between the two countries eased the tensions however.

The initial characterization of China as a "strategic competitor» by officials in the American administration also produced a wariness on both sides. The administration dropped that characterization after the April spy-plane incident, however, and relations seemed to improve steadily thereafter. Ties were strengthened further after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, when China diplomatically supported the US war against terrorism and the United States came to regard China as an ally in that effort.

The Chinese government actually worked with the United States to gain cooperation from Beijing's longtime ally, Pakistan, in the war against Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network and the Taliban government in Afghanistan — despite the possibility of a long-term US military presence in Pakistan. And when the United States announced its withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in late 2001, Beijing's protests were muted, even though a US missile defense system would erode the credibility of China's small nuclear deterrent.

It is difficult to speculate about the motives for policy initiatives in a secretive, authoritarian political system like that of China. Nevertheless, several factors appeared to account for Beijing's unusual restraint.

First, the Chinese Communist Party elite wanted to avoid any international controversy. Second, China's leaders desperately needed to preserve and expand the economic relationship with the United States. The global economic slowdown, and especially the deepening recession in East Asia, has made the US market more crucial than ever. China felt that it could not let quarrels over other matters jeopardize access to that market.

Finally, Chinese leaders were increasingly alarmed at the signs of a growing rapprochement between the United States and China's traditional rival. India. Beijing worries (with good reason) about the possible emergence of a US-Indian "strategic partnership" directed against China. The Chinese response to the wanning relations between Washington and New Delhi has been to try to improve China's own relations with both capitals.

Дата добавления: 2014-12-27