Falling sales

Accounting and financial problems.

Reading THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON BUSINESS

Inflation can adversely affect business in a number of ways:

Significant rates of inflation can cause accounting and financial problems for businesses. They may experience difficulty in valuing assets and stocks, for example. Such problems can waste valuable management time and make forecasting, comparisons and financial control more onerous.

Many businesses may experience falling sales during inflationary periods for two broad reasons. Firstly, it may be that saving rises in a time of inflation. We would expect people to spend more of their money when prices are rising to avoid holding an asset (cash), which is falling in value. However, during the mid-1970s, when industrialized nations were experiencing high inflation rates, savings as a proportion of income rose! It is not easy to identify the reason for this, but some economists suggest that people like to hold a relatively high proportion of their assets in a form which can be quickly converted into cash when the future is uncertain. Whatever the reason, if people save more they spend less and businesses suffer falling sales. The economic model predicts that if savings rose the level of activity in the economy would fall. Clearly, if this happened we would expect businesses to experience difficulty in maintaining their levels of sales.

Businesses may be hit by a reduction in sales during a time of inflation for a second reason. As inflation progresses, it is likely that workers' money wages (that is, wages unadjusted for inflation) will be increased broadly in line with inflation. This may well take a worker

PART I. ECONOMICS

into a higher tax bracket and result in a higher percentage of his or her wages being taken as tax. This process, known as fiscal drag, will cause workers to have less money available to spend on firms' goods and services. The poverty trap has a similar impact. As money wages rise, the poor may find that they no longer qualify for state benefits to supplement their incomes and at the same time they begin to pay income tax on their earnings. Again, this leaves less disposable income to spend on the output of firms. Finally, it may be that the wages of many groups are not index-linked and so they rise less quickly than the rate of inflation, causing a reduction in spending power and demand for goods and services.

Once again, the economic model can be used to predict that increases in the level of taxation will increase withdrawals, lowering the level of eco­nomic activity and depressing firms' sales.

Not all businesses will suffer equally from declining demand in an infla­tionary period. Those selling essential items, such as food, may be little affected whilst others supplying less essential goods and services, such as foreign holidays, may be hard hit.

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