Central Asian states

The Geopolitics of Central Asia

The role of SHOC

New states of Central Eurasia.

Lecture1. Geopolitics of central Asia

The module 1.

Plan of lecture:

1. International cooperation in Central Eurasia in provision of regional security: counteraction to new threats, mechanisms, vectors of cooperation.

In modern and contemporary history Central Asia region was pulled in the geopolitical games in the 2nd half of 19th century. After The Crimean War defeat Russian tsar Alexander II turned his attention in territorial expansion of Russia towards the Caucasus and Central Asian states – Bukhara emirate and Khiva and Kokand khanates. In the 1st half of 19 century Russia liquidated Kazakh hordes (jüzes) and got strategic foreground for the expansion to this area, building the chain of fortresses from Aral Sea to Issyk-Kul Lake. The main interest of Russia except of geostrategic (platform towards British India and Persia) was the production of cotton in Bukhara khanate and the outlet for Russian products. In the 2nd half of C19 Russia put under its control all Central Asian states and after suppression of Turkmen and Afghan tribes achieved the southernmost fortress of Kushka on Afghan border. This campaign started Afghan crisis between Russia and Great Britain, which ended in 1885, when Russian-British treaty was signed. Central Asia for more than 100 years fell off the control of Russian and later Soviet dominance.

The disintegration of USSR opened again this vast area to the world. Russia had to accept the „competition“ of other powers interested in this important region.

One of the main factors of „New Great Struggle“ for Central Asia was little surveyed oil and gas reserves and transit possibilities (the concept of „The New Silk Route“ from Europe to East Asia through The Middle East and Central Asia, which eliminates Russia). Could we speak about new „Battle of Heartland“ as was defined several times in the past?

To answer this question, it is necessary to analyse main world, regional and local geopolitical players on this ground.

Within Central Asia there are two countries that are about to struggle for the leader of the region.

In the first place it is Uzbekistan, the best candidate to regional power with strategic position (frontier with all Central Asian states). There are not as much oil and gas reserves as in neighbour countries - Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, but position in the centre of the region makes Uzbekistan key player for any logical West – East transit. Economical potential due to the population (about 25 mil.) is the highest, although this advantage could become a potential problem because of population growth (expected demographical development is 5-8 mil. people per 10 years).

Not only economical weakness characteristic for all countries, but also Islamic militant and extremist groups are threats for Uzbekistan. 1) Just these threats force president Karimov to find a modus vivendi with Russia and states of so called Shanghai Group G-5 (see below). Cooperation on this field was confirmed on November 2000 CIS summit in Minsk. 2) Even the relationship with other neighbour countries is not ideal – there are tensions about commerce and duties with Kazakhstan (in 1997) and Kyrgyzstan (1999).

There is another more country except of Uzbekistan, which can compete to achieve the position of regional leader – Kazakhstan with its rich oil and other strategic material (estimates of oil are about 95 bil. barrels). It is the only state of Central Asia with common 6600 km long border with strategic partner – Russia. New railway line Almaty – Urumqi (Western China) is the most important for transport of goods on the New Silk Road.

Geopolitical interest also calls up Turkmenistan because of rich gas resources and transit from Turkey and Iran to the East. Key point became opening new railway line – Meshed (Iran) – Sarachs – Asghabat in 1996, which connected directly Iran and China. However, despite its important position and resources the country is more the subject of geopolitical interest of Russia, Iran and Western countries.

The role of other states such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is far less important and these countries are forced to find out some geopolitical partners. Tajikistan is so far one of the unstable zones in the region. Weakness of internal political forces and bad economical situation, civil war in neighbour Afghanistan and infiltration of militant religious extremists from southern frontiers makes Tajikistan very dependent on other countries, especially Russia, which has military bases since the dissolution of the USSR. Kyrgyzstan as well seem to fall into the zone controlled by Russia as its major business partner, although there are high interests from China side too.

In general it is possible to claim, that no country is able to keep its power ambitions without external support, because local autocrats do not have enough means for playing in this game. These external players we can divide to the very neighbour states such as Russia, China, Iran and to some extent Turkey and long away players – main player on this field is USA.

Дата добавления: 2015-05-09