Current examples: Finland, Baltic states

The process and its phases

The basic development process seems to follow a pattern where eight phases can be discerned. These phases are described below, but just briefly. Later a more extensive description of them will be given. An underlying assumption is that a growing Muslim minority allows radical Islamists to influence a growing part of the population in the country. The contents of the traditional Islamic doctrine which is recognised by all four schools of Islam to be the valid one (various interpretations differ - of course - between them), seems to support the interpretations of the radical Islamists regarding many matters. That is probably a main reason for the passivity and silence of the so called "moderate" Muslims who don't have a comprehensive theoretical doctrine to lean upon. Another reason may be that many, or most, "moderates" share the same goals as the radical Islamists but just oppose some of their methods. Fear of reprisals can also be a cause of their passivity. The radicals also have strong international support, including the financial support.

On the basis of our empirical knowledge about the political development in Muslim countries, the attitudes regarding many matters of Muslims in Europe and other pieces of information e g their reactions during the first five years of the war on terror, a good prognosis can be made. During the coming decades, numerous examples from Europe will illuminate the different phases and their contents.

a. The starting point is a Western society with a normal development Social peace, satisfactory economic growth, ordinary crime levels, and changes in government depending on democratic elections. The number of Muslims in the population is very low, and their influence on society negligible.

b. An initial phase when the proportion of Muslims is still fairly small, certain areas of human life of the immigrant population are in practice left alone by the authorities. This allows repression of girls and women in many Muslim families. Open or concealed honour murders which enforce some behavioural rules of the Muslim minority happens now and then. A high birth rate among Muslims and a high level of immigration from Muslim countries is promoted inside the Muslim society.

Infrequent proposals aiming at establishing Sharia regarding various matters, acknowledging Muslim holidays a s o are presented. Another characteristic is increasing levels of crime motivated by attitudes often connected to jihad e g an increasing level of rapes of non-Muslim women.

The incidence of rapes carried out by Muslim men in Norway against non-Muslim women is many times higher than rapes by non-Muslim men. The rape frequency in e g Oslo per capita is said to more than five times higher than in New York City. And two thirds of these rapes are committed by immigrants even though they still constitute a rather small part of society. This does not only reflect the dysfunctional relations between sexes in the Muslim part of society but is also a sign of an early “light-version” example of the influence of jihad thinking in the country. Charities, property crimes including credit card crimes are used to collect money for global jihad.

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