Proliferation threats

A new security environment in Central Asia after 2001

The 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States had direct and indirect effects on every

country in the world. In Central Asia, the developments were particularly decisive because of the

United States-led military campaigns in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003). The military operation in

Afghanistan has been especially significant as the geographical proximity of Afghanistan to the Central

Asian states and political, religious, social and economic factors all make the region dependent on

stability in its neighbour.

Central Asia: regional security and WMD

The geopolitical context for US–Uzbek relations, however, changed significantly after 2005.

In May of that year in the Uzbek town of Andijon (Fergana Valley), thousands protested against

the growing poverty, corruption and repression of people who practise Islam outside of the tight

restrictions on religion established by the Uzbek government.7 Hundreds were reportedly killed by

law enforcement officers. The Uzbek government has denied any wrongdoing and has stated that the

protests were organized by Islamic fundamentalists. The US government criticized Tashkent for what

looked like a bloody reprisal against dissenting people by an authoritarian regime.8 Tashkent, stung by

Western criticism, kicked US troops out of the Karshi-Khanabad base and appears to have turned to

China and the Russian Federation for strategic partnership.

Although Central Asia had traditionally been in Russia's sphere of security interests, the long-term

presence of US military bases in the region has significantly altered the degree of Russian influence.

Nonetheless, Russia—and China—are not ready to give up on the idea of exercising significant

influence in Central Asia. The shifting geopolitical paradigm (e.g. Uzbekistan swinging between a

strategic partnership with the United States on the one hand and with Russia and China on the other;

the unpredictable and shifting Kyrgyz–Russian and Kyrgyz–US relationship; and Kazakhstan's "multivector"

foreign policy of manoeuvring between the interests of major powers) demonstrates that great

powers are continuing their struggle for dominance in the region, while Central Asian states continue

to depend on these powers in terms of providing for their own security. None of this provides a good

foundation for a predictable and stable security environment in the region.

The long-term impact of the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, the anti-Taliban military

campaign in Afghanistan, and the 2003 war in Iraq on geopolitics in Central Asia remains to be seen.

The long-term implications for regional security continue to evolve. On the one hand, the removal

of the Taliban in Afghanistan certainly contributed to regional stability in the long run. The active

involvement of the United States in Central Asia—shaped by its interest in the region's political and

economic stability—has also had a positive impact. At the same time, these very factors are potentially

disruptive. The presence of US bases in Central Asia, potential political unrest, the ongoing economic

and social crises in neighboring Afghanistan, and the geopolitical redistribution of power among the

traditional key players from outside the region could all contribute to instability in Central Asia.

Дата добавления: 2015-05-09